Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction

Drawing on groundbreaking decades-long research from the Good Judgment Project, Philip E. Tetlock offers a masterclass in decision-making and forecasting. Analyzing how ordinary people from diverse backgrounds consistently outperform intelligence agency experts, this book reveals that accurate prediction is not a rare genius talent, but a disciplined mindset that can be cultivated through probabilistic reasoning, intellectual humility, and continuous calibration.

Auteur : Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner